Sunday, 26 April 2015

The polls are flatlining with hardly any movement for any party.


Take a look at this graph from UK Polling Report. It shows that the three main parties have been flat lining since the start of the year, with Labour and the Tories now neck and neck. Even if the Tories do get an extra point or two, it will not influence the outcome all that much as Cameron's team has to be about five points clear of Labour to offset Labour's inbuilt advantage in seat distribution.

Labour can take some comfort from the results since even with the deluge that awaits the party in Scotland, the party is still competitive with the Tories in the country as a whole. It is almost as if every time Miliband looks like losing another few points in Scotland, his party perks up south of the River Tweed, so the overall Scottish effect is nil.

The Greens are clearly the losers here since they have sagged quite clearly to five percent, which is probably why Labour is still polling relatively well. The UKIP sag seems to have ended and the purples are now riding steadily on about 13 percent. It will be interesting to see if the notion of the shy kipper vote is anything other than hot air. If it is, then we can expect UKIP to poll around 15 percent or so next week.

All the postal votes went out early last week, and since postal voters tend to complete their ballot papers and send them off within 48 hours, we can assume that for 20 percent of the population the election is now over. Even if one party does start to climb in the polls, the fear must be that it will not influence the final outcome by all that much. Needless to say, with every day that goes by, the chances of that happening become slimmer and more remote. The parties have thrown the kitchen sink at each other, and only in Scotland has it influenced the way that people intend to vote.

How this will pan out when the votes are in we just do not know. Our old friend the universal swing has no meaning when people are voting for different parties in Scotland and to a lesser extent in Wales. Not only that, but in England we have Labour, Liberal, Tory and UKIP all seriously in contention for votes, with the Greens still hoping to grab whatever scraps fall from the main table.

This election will be chewed over for decades to come!

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