Thursday 11 January 2018

What Are the Chances of Another EU Referendum?

God knows what was going through Nigel Farage's mind today when he got all loose-lipped over the possibility of yet another EU referendum. It is obvious that his remarks were in the context of doing in the Federasts once and for all and leaving them whining piteously for another generation at least, but that is not the point. By coming out with those remarks he has given the impression that he supports another plebiscite, and all the clarification in the world isn't going to alter that. Remember that your average Federast is also a fantasist, so when Farage was spotted in the German consulate soon after the 2016 vote, that meant that he must be applying for German nationality. 

As I write, the sexually self-sufficient members of the polyocracy who form the Guardian's decreasing readership are wanking dementedly over the prospect of another referendum. Being thick as pigshit they have skipped over the bit about how they actually get the vote and are talking about what the rules will be, how they will campaign and what level of turnout they expect to see.

I am reminded of an old recipe for jugged hare that began: "First catch your hare," and with that in mind, let's look at the hurdles that would have to be gone through to get another referendum called.

First of all, Parliament would have to vote for it. MPs, most of whom come from divisions that voted for Brexit will have to put all that aside and vote to ignore the will of the people as freely expressed in 2016.

Now, the first two votes came about because the issue could not be resolved or even contained within the party system, so Labour in 1975 and then the Tories in 2016 handed the broad choice of remain or leave to the people. The second vote was helped along by the fact that the flanks of both major parties were in danger of being turned by UKIP.

To get to the stage of even thinking about a referendum, the governing party's internal feuding has to be such that it becomes the least worst option. I don't see that happening with the Tories being pretty much united in pushing for Brexit. Come to think of it, so are Labour, since they know that most of their seats are in the Brexit heartland. So we have a broad measure of consensus that leaving the EU is something that will happen in March 2019. That consensus has been helped by the fact that UKIP are in the doldrums, and once we are out of the EU, will probably cease to exist.

So, there is no discernable mood in Westminster for another referendum, but could the MPs be pushed into it by outside agitation?

As far as the people are concerned, outside the ranks of the Guardian-reading wankerati the EU is not a topic for debate, with some Labour MPs reporting that the only voices they hear about it are from the large numbers of their constituents who want to know why it is still being discussed and why we are not out by now.

The Federasts have tried to organise marches ever since their arses were handed to them on a plate in 2016, and even promised us an autumn of discontent last year, but if you look at the nice, middle-class people who turn out for them then you will quickly realise that such poncy types are hardly likely to put the wind up any government.

None of this is to say that we should not be prepared to swing into action if another referendum is called, and we have to keep an eye on the Federasts and oppose their wicked schemes for the rest of this year.

That said, the chances of another vote are small to miniscule so we don't need to worry too much.

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