Friday, 22 November 2019

With the Debate Over, Boris Continues to Climb in the Polls.

The debate between Boris and Jezza that I was worried might lead to a boost for the latter ended up as a draw with neither man gaining an advantage which meant that Boris' steady climb in the polls was able to continue unhindered. Next week there is another debate involving all the party leaders, but quite rightly Boris has decided to sit that one out. It is about climate change, so is only of interest to the type of snowflake who won't vote for Boris, anyway.

The next potential crisis came and went yesterday with the release of the Labour manifesto. Two years ago, Labour's manifesto led to an immediate increase in support for the party, but it seems as if the Tories were ready this year and have moved to try and defuse the more popular parts of Jezza's offering.

Other people who have concerns about Labour are also getting in on the act, such as this young woman with her ditty that manages to be both engaging and terrifying at the same time:

My feeling is that the manifesto falls down on the quite simple grounds that most of it cannot be implemented from within the EU. Certainly, the free broadband idea would run up against EU competition rules and those members of Labour Momentum who are discussing the need for exchange controls with great glee really do need to be reminded that free movement of capital is one of the four freedoms that are the cornerstones of the whole EU edifice. I try to remind them that this is one of the reasons why historically the left opposed the EU root and branch but they don't seem to want to listen. Hopefully, a defeat will make them see sense.

Boris is not out of the woods just yet, but with the election coming less than three weeks from now, his position looks solid.

Tuesday, 19 November 2019

Why Tonight's Debate Could Backfire Against Boris.

I am very dubious about the Boris versus Jezza head to head debate that will take place tonight. There is a good reason why sitting Prime Ministers do not take part in these stunts and someone should have had a quiet word with Boris and told him that this was not one of his better ideas.

The Tories are ahead of Labour by at least ten points so what does Boris hope to gain from this event? It is unlikely that his margin will increase but the danger is there that Jezza may score enough hits to increase his level of support.

Boris is the better speaker of the two, but as those of us who remember him from the Oxford Union will testify, he is also bone-idle and relies on his wit to carry the day and get him out of the trouble that his lack of knowledge of a subject has caused him.

It must also be said that Jezza has one advantage over Boris in that he actually believes what he says. Boris, on the other hand, comes over as the cove who says whatever he has to in the hope of getting the votes.

Even if Boris does not implode - and I do not think that he will - then the possibility that the debate will lead to an increase in support for Jezza is still high. Consider the possibility that the Leader of the Opposition will leave the audience realising that the Liberal-Democrats are going nowhere and thus persuade a big chunk of their 14% in the polls to switch to Labour. If that happens then Boris' ten-point lead could be halved pretty quickly and that puts us back into hung parliament territory once again.

Finally, and most serious of all, could a Boris victory in the debate leave Brexiteers feeling that he has it in the bag? If enough start to think that then Nigel Farage's five per cent in the polls could turn out to be on the low side. We need to remember that votes for The Brexit Party come overwhelmingly from the Tories, not Labour. 

All in all, tonight's performance is a bad idea for the Brexiteers, and we all will pray mightily that not too much damage is done by it.

Saturday, 16 November 2019

Nigel Farage Gifts the Tories Another 42 Seats

It is impossible not to admire Nigel Farage. I felt that way when I met the man about six years ago and I still retain all my admiration for his work over the past two decades to free the UK from the tentacles of the EU. I just wish that he was more astute as a strategist, that's all. As a campaigner he is great, but he does seem to have forgotten of late that Brexit is not about any single man it really is about leaving the EU.

His unilateral decision to stand down his candidates in 317 Tory seats will certainly help Boris, but almost as important was the failure to find candidates - or have them resign rather than split the Brexit vote - in 42 more. Most of them are in Scotland where The Brexit Party has collapsed to all intents and purposes as I reported recently, but there are a few others in ultra marginals that the Tories need to win if they are to stay in office. 

Farage has gifted those seats to Boris, albeit as a result of The Brexit Party's incompetence, rather than by any design on Nigel Farage's part. Still, Boris needs good luck as well as good management, and Lady Luck has just smiled on him 42 times.

Thursday, 14 November 2019

Brexit Party Will Not Contest Edinburgh West

Following on from yesterday's posting, now that nominations for the elections have now closed, The Brexit Party will not stand a candidate in Edinburgh West. Michael Boyd was due to be the sacrificial lamb to Nigel Farage's ego but following representations from any number of people, including me, he decided to stand down. His replacement happens to be a friend of mine and as soon as I told him what the situation was in this constituency he decided not to bother as well.

Sadly, The Brexit Party has managed to find two people who will stand in this city, one in Edinburgh North & Leith and the other in Edinburgh South-West. Neither has any hope of saving his deposit and neither will get any support from a party that has basically collapsed as an electoral force.

Both were chosen at the panic-stricken meeting that was called at the Marriott Hotel on Tuesday when pretty much anyone who had 500 quid in his pocket to pay his election deposit was allowed to stand.

Across the whole of Great Britain, the press is reporting that the clownish buffoonery that we have seen in Scotland is being repeated, with candidates standing down and being replaced by anyone who is willing to put his name forward and stump up the deposit. God knows who these people are, but I expect that more than a few will come into the category of headbangers and the press should have a field day reporting on their weird and wonderful views.

All good fun, but I just wish that Farage had taken his victory and left the field wide open for Boris to get a thumping majority.

Wednesday, 13 November 2019

Exclusive: The Brexit Party Has Collapsed in Scotland

The Brexit Party appears to be falling apart in Scotland, which is good news for those of us who have decided that Boris' way is pretty much the only way to get Brexit done.

Nigel Farage pulled all his senior people out of Scotland a week ago, including the National Organiser. Louis Stedman-Bryce, the party's sole MEP in Scotland was then appointed as the new National Organiser, but given no support or help whatsoever. He was due to stand as the candidate in Glasgow North but resigned using Farage's decision to pull over 300 candidates from the line as his excuse. Actually, I suspect he realised that he would be left carrying the can for the looming catastrophe and decided to get our sharpish.

Edinburgh West had a candidate named Michael Boyd, a man I wrote to yesterday to urge him not to stay with the Brexit Party's sinking ship. Just today, I got an email from an old friend telling me that he had been asked to stand in this division, so it looks as if Michael Boyd took my advice.

I answered my old friend's email and pleaded with him not to take this poisoned chalice, and I am pleased to report that he will not now be standing for The Brexit Party.

This afternoon, a meeting was called at the Marriot Hotel in Edinburgh's Old Town and pretty much all the attendees were begged to stand in next month's elections, so it looks as if Boyd and Stedman-Bryce are not the only people who have called it a day. By the way, that meeting was only called yesterday, which suggests to me that bowels are liquifying nicely in what is left of the senior reaches of The Brexit Party.

Finally, people are getting text messages begging them to stay at home tomorrow to receive visitors who will ask them to sign candidates' nomination forms. Given that these forms have to be in by 4.00 pm on the dot, and that ten signatures are needed for each one, I think this is a bit of a forlorn hope but never mind. As I understand it one woman who was asked to waste a day indoors told the caller that she was going to the hairdresser's and would be out of touch all day.

What is going on? Basically, Farage is brilliant as the leader of a pressure group and appalling as a party political leader. He only trusts his close friends and anyone who is not a mate of Nigel is kept out of the inner-sanctum. 

The sensible thing for Farage to do would be to pull all his candidates and give Boris a clear run to the Brexit prize, but his ego will not allow him to do that. He must know that candidates that have been chosen the day before nominations close have no chance of even saving their deposits - deposits that they have to find themselves, by the way - but he needs 300 of them to ensure that he gets a free television party election address. Besides that, he has announced that he will have 300 candidates, and his ego means that wants that number.

I do not know what is happening in the rest of the country but in Scotland, The Brexit Party is pretty much finished as a serious political force. 

The field is now wide open for Boris and his gang!

Monday, 30 September 2019

A Caserolazo Is One Way to Resist a Very British Junta

As the various quislings who seem to make up the bulk of the opposition in the House of Commons talk about their plans for a so-called Government of National Unity, it might be a good idea to use original Spanish terms for what is rapidly becoming a very Hispanic type of politics. While we are at it, we can also look at some effective means of popular resistance.

First of all, we will not legitimise this constitutional coup by adopting the name given to it by its members and supporters. For us it is a junta; a gang of treasonous buffoons who may lack the comic opera uniforms found in the Hispanic world but who are just as unconstitutional.

There is talk of John Bercow being installed as jefe de la junta, but I find that idea as risible as Bercow. Most coup leaders end up as figures of fun, but they never start out that way and that is Bercow's lot, I'm afraid. At 5' 5" tall the most he could do is threaten to headbutt someone on his kneecap, but I doubt if he could even manage that threat and make it credible. Not when he knows that his own wife puts the horns on him with his brother. He must also know that we know as well and find his inability to control his own household an endless source of amusement. We suspect that the family dog ignores him as well. 

The fact that the putative coup mongers have not ruled Bercow out suggests that they are short of talent, but assuming that they find someone, then manage to remove the government and install this caudillo in Downing Street, how shall we respond?

The classic Latin-American response to a coup has become the international standard: it is called the caserolazo, and it is very effective. Basically, you take a casserole dish and a big spoon from the kitchen, go outside and then use the dish as a drum to create, along with thousands of other women, a cacophony of noise.

We don't know who came up with this idea, but it seems to have been a Chilian, probably during their period of rule by the junta. That a woman came up with this idea in the first place strikes me as axiomatic: how many men do you know who even have a dim awareness of where the kitchen is, still less what the pots are stored in it?

One person banging one dish is just local noise, but a thousand people doing the same is guaranteed to put the shits up the local bizzies, especially if the demonstrators are stood in their own backyards and the boys in blue can't see them so don't know exactly how many people are involved.

In 1980s Chile they had to print leaflets such as the one reproduced above to get people to engage in a caserolazo, but we have the internet and mobile phones that can be used to spread our agitprop quickly and cheaply. If the Chileans could get tens of thousands to join in the demonstrations then we should be able to get the whole of the Brexitland to create a feeling of blind terror in the hearts of all the quislings.

The coup is coming, so let's be ready to meet it!

Tuesday, 24 September 2019

Federast Funnies 12

Well, another one of my comments at the Guardian that did not last very long. Needless to say, more than a few Guardianistas were having the vapours when they read it, but it is a fair point - how can a man like Bercow be expected to have the respect of anyone when he cannot even command it from his own wife?

The General Election is gonna be fun, you mark my words.
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