Puigdemont and Other Catalan Politicians Have Done a Runner to Belgium

Carles Puigdemont and other members of his government have taken refuge in Belgium, of all places, according to la Vanguardia, a Catalan newspaper. 

I will write a longer posting sometime this week, but if this story turns out to be confirmed then it looks as if the Catalan crisis has turned out to be a damp squib.

Why the British Government Is Failing With Its Catalonia Policy

This famous cartoon from an August 1864 edition of Punch pretty much sums up how the British government should respond to the Catalan crisis. Punch and the then Prime Minister, Lord Palmerston pass Jefferson Davis on the street, and Punch asks Pam if he recognised Davis. Palmerston, ever the politician, replies that he doesn't, but may have to one day.

The joke with its play on words works very well because it has always been British government policy not to recognise secessionist entities until the day arrives when the entity shows that it can stand on its own two feet. At that point, it is recognised and ceases to be a secessionist entity and joins the family of sovereign states. The Confederate States of America was never quite able to reach that point, although it came very close, so Britain never recognised it. 

In the case of Catalonia, the jury is still out on whether the newly proclaimed sovereign state will be able to maintain its independence, but that does not explain the rather fatuous, almost cringing statement that was put out by a Downing Street spokesman:

The UK does not and will not recognise the Unilateral Declaration of Independence made by the Catalan regional parliament. It is based on a vote that was declared illegal by the Spanish courts. We continue to want to see the rule of law upheld, the Spanish Constitution respected, and Spanish unity preserved.

All that was needed was a holding statement from the British government calling for calm and stating that HMG had no plans to recognise Catalonia, but instead, we have been treated to this drivel. The government is going to look very silly indeed if Spain does no offer any goodies as a mark of her gratitude, which she won't and why should she? London has already given Madrid everything and asked for nothing in return.

Looking silly is something that Theresa May should be used to by now, but there are two issues at stake, here, which make the statement even more incomprehensible than it would otherwise have been.

The first is that the UK does not owe Spain any favours. The issue of Gibralter is still outstanding, with Spain sending naval vessels into the waters around the Rock as an irritation to Britain. If Spain is bogged down in an internal conflict then Gibraltar is safe for another generation at least and we are not going to see a repeat of the Falklands War in 1982 when Argentina, another international joke of a country, decided to distract attention from a looming internal crisis by creating a foreign one. 

Secondly, and far more important even than Gibralter, is the fact that as part of the Brexit negotiations, it is not in Britain's interests to have a confident, united, European Union on the other side of the negotiating table. On the other hand, it is in Britain's interests to have an EU that is divided against itself, with Britain siding with one faction or another on the basis of her self-interest in getting the EU to sign up to most of what London wants.

Looking at the Eastern Marches of the EU we can see countries like Poland and Bulgaria that are totally opposed to the influx of Muslim migrants. That attitude has brought them into conflict with Germany and that is a further issue that Britain can use to her own advantage. It is not a case of supporting Poland, merely that London should be more neutral in the dispute between the outer reaches of the Empire and its central heartland.

So it is with Spain and Catalonia. By doing nothing Britain could help ensure that the crisis continues to rumble. A continuing crisis is not good for Iberia, but it might just be good for the United Kingdom.

This is all something that Britain once understood, but doesn't seem to today. Ending this piece as I began it, with the Americans in the 1860s, the British blockade runner captains, had a toast that pretty much sums up how Britain has historically behaved in times like this:

Here's to the Southern planters who grow the cotton; to the Yankees that maintain the blockade and keep up the price of cotton; and to the Limeys who buy the cotton. So, three cheers for a long continuance of the war, and success to the blockade runners!

 Theresa May and today's government would do well to remember that.

Catalonia Declares Independence: What Happens Next?

By all accounts, Barcelona and other Catalan cities are awash with the Estelada, the national flag of Catalonia, which declared herself independent of Spain today. Within an hour of that declaration being made the Spanish government announced plans to strip Catalonia of what autonomy she enjoys and send colonial administrators in to run the country at the behest of Madrid.

It is unlikely that we would have reached this crisis had the European Union not thrown its entire weight behind Spain. A more relaxed, neutral stance from Brussels might have given the Neo-Falangistas in Madrid pause for thought, but Brussels has in effect told Madrid to do as it pleases so Spain appears to be about to do just that.

One would have hoped that the British government could have adopted a more hands-off approach, but Theresa May has already pledged full support for Spain. Given that this is a European Union crisis that does not involve us, it might have been a better idea to offer no statement at all and then await events. As it is, London has given up a valuable piece in its own chess match with the EU for no return that is visible to this writer.

What happens next really depends on events on the ground in Iberia. If the Spanish do nothing then Catalonia will become independent by default. If the Spanish send their army into the country and Catalonia does not resist then the country will go back to being a region of Spain. The notion of rights does not enter into the equation: all that matters is the respective willingness of young men in Catalonia and Spain to be willing to die in the cause of one side or the other. 

Given that Spain has an army and Catalonia has to build one from scratch, the advantage is clearly with Madrid at the moment, but Catalonia does have two valuable cards to play.

The first is that one of the causes of the Spanish Civil War which broke out in 1936 was Catalonian independence, an independence that was crushed by the Spanish Republic's defeat in that war. Until 1975 the Catalonian language was suppressed, the country's Estelada flag was banned, and Catalonia was basically run as an occupied country. Post-1975 and no government was willing to make the surviving fascist rebels from 1936 pay their dues, so it is quite likely that one of the issues that motivate today's Catalonians is revenge for those past injustices. If that is the case, then Catalonia might just have a population that is willing to pay any price to achieve independence. 

Secondly, we need to ponder on the reaction of Latin-America to all this. There are rumours swirling around that Venezuela and Bolivia may recognise Catalan independence, so we need to keep an eye on developing attitudes in Caracas and La Paz. If countries do start to recognise Catalonia as an independent republic then that will encourage the country to resist Spain to the utmost of her ability.

Sadly, to reach the stage where countries with issues of their own with Spain give support to Catalonia, an awful lot of young Catalonian men will have to die first to show that the people are serious about this declaration of independence.

The Repression of Catalonia Makes Scotland Less Supportive of the European Union

The Spanish repression of Catalonia has given a boost to Brexiteers in Scotland since it is obvious that the EU has little or no interest in trying to prevent the Neo-Falangistas who currently hold power in Madrid from continuing to turn loose their goon squads. The end result of this is that supporters of Scottish independence are starting to see that the EU is actually a handicap to their aims, rather than a help. 

To be fair, it always seemed to me that Scottish support for the EU was skin deep and tactical, rather than being a deeply held ideological commitment to Brussels. The SNP used the EU during the IndyRef as an argument in favour of the notion that Scotland could leave the UK, but everything would remain the same, via the EU.

During the 2016 Brexit campaign, a lot of Scots were moved to support Brexit having seen what the EU had done to Greece, and more than a few SNP activists defied their party's leadership and campaigned for Leave. However, Catalonia is far more important to the Scottish mindset than Greece will ever be and the sympathy for that occupied country is palpable here in Scotland.

During the 2014 Scottish independence referendum campaign, Edinburgh was awash with Saltires, of course, but running a close second to the Saltire in terms of popularity was the Catalonian Estelada. On the weekend before the vote, central Edinburgh seemed to have more Esteladas than Saltires as thousands of Catalans came over to Scotland to see the country's referendum first hand and make plans for their own.

So close are the two peoples that in 2016 when the Madrid government decided to ban the Estelada from being waved by Catalan supporters of Barcelona football club, the supporters announced that they would carry Scottish Saltires instead. In the end, the Madrid Fascists decided to back down and the Catalan flag was allowed in the Madrid stadium, but the story is illustrative of the strong, warm feelings that exist between the peoples of the two small countries.

At the time of writing, we still do not know what the outcome of the crisis in Catalonia will be. However, we can be pretty sure that Scottish support for the European Union has taken a hit and the SNP is now pretty much unable to use the EU as a club that can be used to beat Westminster with.

That alone is good news for Brexit.

What Labour Should Do to Help Ensure Brexit, and Win the Next General Election

As the Labour conference ends with a party seemingly more united and optimistic than it has been in many a long year, what should Labour do about the pressing issue of Brexit?

The question was, of course, rhetorical, and Labour should do nothing at all. In fact, it should keep its collective mouth shut and leave the government to continue making mistakes. Let the Tories take us out of the European Union, which is what most Labour voters want, and suffer as much internal damage in the process as possible, which is what Labour as a party should want.

Once we are free of the EU, Labour can then put forward some policy or other at the next general election that aims at closer links with the EU. The aim here would be to keep the Metropolitan, Guardian-reading, wankerati element happy and voting Labour.  Given that politically it is impossible for Labour to ever agree to free movement, the EU can be expected to reject those overtures. For its part, Labour can tell the wankerati that at least it tried and the failure can be placed at the door of Brussels.

Before doing that, of course, Labour will have tiptoed into office over the twitching corpse of the Tory Party, and with a bit of political luck, that corpse will not be able to crawl out of its coffin for many years to come. Labour could be in power for two or even three elections, which is time enough to wrench the political centre of gravity back to 1970s levels - especially if there is no real opposition.

Jeremy Corbyn seems to be following the say nothing much line, certainly if his leader's speech to the 2017 party conference was to be believed. He told the delegates that Labour wanted "unimpeded access to the single market" which is fine as that is also what the Tories want, so there is a broad consensus there.

 Earlier in the conference he had said: “I would also say that we need to look very carefully at the terms of our trade relationship, because at the moment we are a part of the single market and that has within it restrictions on state aid and state spending and pressures on it, through the European Union, to privatise rail and other services.”

In other words, there is plenty of Brexiteering wriggle room in Corbyn's statements and it is all a far cry from what the party's Federast element want which is full membership of the single market. The devil, as always is in those details.

So long as those details remain suitably vague, Labour can remain a Brexit party with a newish membership who are too thick to realise that they are being pulled by the short and curlies towards the exit. By the time that parasitic shower of local government placeholders who now infest the local Labour branches wake up to that fact we should be out of the EU. Then, as I said earlier,  Labour can toss them a bone or two with a pledge to try and improve relations with Brussels, and by the time they discover that Brussels is not interested it will be too late to do anything about it.

The polyocracy will feel like something that a dog has spewed up, but with any luck, by then Labour should have recreated its links to the workers who produce wealth by their labours and the buffoons with their crappy little poly degrees and puerile desire for status can be safely ignored.

Guest Posting: The Federast Assault on the Last Night of the Proms

 Tim Collard was one of our men in Peking for many years before becoming HM Consul-General in Hamburg until his retirement. He is fluent in both German and Mandarin and now forms a part of the Oxford Union in exile which meets up every Wednesday evening in an Edinburgh swill shop to discuss matters of great weight and drink beer.

I have tried, quite sincerely, to keep my participation in Brexit debates civil and non-inflammatory. As regards yesterday's march, such demonstrations are every bit as legitimate as Labour Party rallies after our recent election defeat.

But I do regard the anti-Brexit manifestations at the Last Night of the Proms as fair game. Wave your frigging twelve-star flags somewhere else. (Why doesn't someone start a fashion for cutting out one of the stars as a symbol of Brexit? If I get my hands on an EU flag I certainly will.) 

And some of the crap they talk! From the BBC: "A spokesman for EU Flags Proms Team told The Telegraph: 'During the Age of Enlightenment, Mozart, Handel and Bach all lived and worked for part of their lives in London. Presumably, under the Brexit dark ages, they would not be welcome.'"

Strangely enough, the Treaty of Rome was not in force during the eighteenth century. And that Enlightenment century began with the War of the Spanish Succession, proceeded via the Wars of Jenkins' Ear and the Austrian Succession to the Seven Years' War, throughout much of which, especially the last, Britain sat back rubbing its hands while grabbing colonies left, right and centre. The century ended with the French Revolutionary Wars and the emergence of Napoleon. Meanwhile, Bach, Handel and Mozart were able to sit happily in London doing their thang with no interference from either British immigration or Greater Luxembourg. Sure, they tended not to provoke the natives by whingeing about the right of free movement - they just exercised it.

Out of respect for my many friends who disagree rationally with me on Brexit, I try to refrain from using words like "Remoaners", but it's a bit of a tough call sometimes.

For the record, the Guardian is now having the vapours over the whole idea of the Promenade Concerts, especially the last night. Also for the record, Tim should know that we do not call these scumsuckers "Remoaners," we call them "Federasts."

The Federast March in London Greeted With Indifference

The Federasts had a march in London today and as you can see from this placard, they wanted us to know how diverse they all are.

Except there is nothing diverse about these sexually self-sufficient wallys. What happened today was that a few well-fed, well-clothed, well-paid, White Middle-Class North Londoners went for a stroll. 

There were no counter demonstrations organised, the police were not put on full, thuggish alert as they were during the Poll Tax riots or the miners' strike.

There was no need for any of that as these tossers pose no threat to anyone. On Monday Jeremy will go back to his non-job and Jemima will take the little scrotes to their nurseries before popping off to have lunch with her chums.

As even the Guardian had to admit, this shower was "a largely white, often self-admittedly middle class one" and as such it can be ignored by the bulk of the British people.

Which is as it should be.